"Faster, Higher, Stronger." That's been the story of the Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»real estate market for the last decade as prices rose higher and homes sold faster on strong demand.
But now, after an Olympian marathon, the buyers and sellers are taking a well-earned breather, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's latest statistics.
MLS Sales and Listings
If you can tear yourself away from the synchronized swimming and taekwondo on your TV, walk down any street and see the number of For Sale signs. It will come as no surprise that last month, Greater Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»MLS® sales hit the lowest July total since 2000, with 2,098 homes selling out of 18,081 homes for sale. That's a sales-to-active-listings ratio of 11.6 per cent, which the REBGV defines as athe top end of a buyer's market. Price drops are said to be on the horizon when the sales-to-listings ratio falls below 10 per cent.
Sellers have noticed the lull and new listings have dropped. A frenzy in May drove new listings more than 15 per cent over the 10-year average for that month. But after that, fewer homeowners listed in June, and even fewer in July. Still, there were still 18.8 per cent more active listings in the REBGV area this July than there were last year at the same time, which reflects the slowdown in sales.
So for sales and listings, this year we're seeing more of a summer lull than usual.ÂÌý
What's Up, What's Down - At a Glance
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July 2012/June2012
ÂÌýJuly 2012/July 2011
Overall Sales
-11.2%
-18.4%
- Detached
-14.3%
-28.4%
- Townhome
-7.5%
-11.1%
- Apartment
-9.6%
-10.9%
New Listings
-14.5%
-5.8%
Current Listings
-2.2%
+18.8%
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Benchmark Price (MLS®Ã‚ÌýHome Price Index)
The MLS® Home Price Index is definitely starting to reflect the changes in sales and listings. After a pretty smooth run-up starting in March of 2009, it seems to have hit a peak in May for detached houses and apartments. Townhouse prices are on their own trajectory, and actually went up ever so slighly over June.
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Here are the composite benchmark prices for Greater Vancouver.
Greater Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»Benchmark Prices % Change
ÂÌý
July 2012
June 2012
July 2011
Detached
$950,200
-1.2%
+1.4%
Townhome
$468,700
+0.1%
-0.5%
Apartment
$374,300
-0.5%
0.0%
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Greater Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»numbers don't tell the whole story for people who live in the City of Vancouver, though. The Real Estate Board of Greater Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»represents all the municipalities north of the Fraser, from Whistler south, as well as Tsawwassen and Ladner.
For Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»East and Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»West, here are the July house prices and how they've changed from June 2012 and the previous July. Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»East saw benchmark prices escalate year on year, while Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»West prices returned more or less to July 2011 levels.
Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»East Benchmark Prices % Change
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July 2012
June 2012
July 2011
Detached
$863,200
-0.2%
+5.5%
Townhome
$527,500
+1.1%
+4.9%
Apartment
$311,100
-0.8%
+2.6%
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Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»West Benchmark Prices % Change
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July 2012
June 2012
July 2011
Detached
$2,170,500
-1.5%
ÂÌý 0.0%
Townhome
$710,900
-0.3%
+3.3%
Apartment
$374,300
-0.2%
-0.2%
ÂÌý
A number of recent industry studies have forecast a slowdown in the overheated Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»and Toronto markets. Predicted drops in price have been anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent over the next two-to-five years, and over the last two months the Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»market has seemed to be in wait-and-see mode.
So it's summer with a vengeance in the Greater Â鶹´«Ã½Ó³»real estate market.
You can read the full stats package here.
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REW.ca is the online Real Estate Weekly and the Lower Mainland's local search engine for MLS and new home listings.
