By the time the Oscars wind around after months of other award shows and constant handicapping, the prizes can feel almost predetermined.
Not this year.
Sunday's 97th has more potential drama than any recent year, with many possible outcomes in the top categories, including best picture, best actor and best actress. After the first frontrunner and lead nominee, āEmilia PĆ©rez,ā became engulfed in controversy, āA²Ō“Ē°ł²¹ā ran the table with a trio of precursor guild honors. Then āC“Ē²Ō³¦±ō²¹±¹±šā swooped in to win at the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Who will come out on top? Associated Press Film Writers and share their predictions.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: āAnora," āThe Brutalist," āA Complete Unknown,ā āConclave,ā āDune: Part Two,ā āEmilia PĆ©rez,ā āIām Still Here,ā āNickel Boys,ā āThe Substance,ā āWicked"
COYLE: Like any diagnosis this flu season, there are a lot of options. It would seem to be down to either (PGA, DGA and WGA wins) or (BAFTA, SAG), but itās close enough that a shocker is in the realm of possibility. The film industry is in a strange, mixed-up place and we have had a strange, mixed-up awards season to suit it. Ultimately, I think Sean Bakerās āA²Ō“Ē°ł²¹ā wins. I trust the top prizes from the and less than the ā especially when the PGA opts for a scrappy indie over glossier studio productions. Plus, āC“Ē²Ō³¦±ō²¹±¹±šā is a nice little movie, but best picture? Not to get my vestments in a twist, but come on, āA²Ō“Ē°ł²¹ā is a masterpiece.
BAHR: I kind of want to say āC“Ē²Ō³¦±ō²¹±¹±šā just to hedge our bets. Maybe Iāll talk myself into it by the end of this, but its recent wins over āA²Ō“Ē°ł²¹ā do make a certain amount of sense (in retrospect) for those particular voting bodies ā actors and, well, Brits. Itās also the establishment choice in many ways, but one that also feels aligned with the very international membership of the academy. I agree that āA²Ō“Ē°ł²¹ā is a masterpiece, but maybe āC“Ē²Ō³¦±ō²¹±¹±šā is the consensus ā everyoneās second choice.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Demi Moore, āThe Substanceā; Cynthia Erivo, āWickedā; Mikey Madison, āA²Ō“Ē°ł²¹ā; Karla SofĆa GascĆ³n, āEmilia PĆ©rezā; Fernanda Torres, āIām Still Hereā
BAHR: This race feels so up in the air after Mikey Madisonās BAFTA win and āAnoraāsā rise in general. Madison gave such a great and thoughtful speech there, praising her collaborators with the kind of specificity that doesnāt often happen on those stages, and it occurred before Oscar voting had ended. Thereās even the possibility that ekes out a win. But Iām still leaning towards , who won at SAG, as the sentimental favorite ā a fun, wild performance and a great comeback narrative. Plus, this award hasnāt really gone to an ingenue since .
COYLE: This should be close, but I also give the edge to Moore. Sheās taken the lead thanks to the fearlessness of her performance in āThe Substanceā and arguably the seasonās most convincing narrative. Still, Iād favor Madison, who absolutely commands āAnora.ā
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Adrien Brody, āThe Brutalistā; TimothĆ©e Chalamet, āA Complete Unknownā; Colman Domingo, āSing Singā; Ralph Fiennes, āC“Ē²Ō³¦±ō²¹±¹±šā; Sebastian Stan, āThe Apprenticeā
COYLE: Brody had been on cruise control for much of the season, but I think takes it. Even before his big victory at the SAG Awards, the academyās fondness for the widely liked āA Complete Unknownā needed somewhere to go. This Oscars could end up best remembered as the (deserving) coronation of Hollywoodās crown prince.
BAHR: Oh great, because Iām sticking with Brody. Iām glad Chalamet won at SAG, itās makes sense that his fellow actors would want to honor his commitment to that role and film. Five years in your 20s IS forever and it would be very neat for him to win at the same age Brody did for āThe Pianistā (and in fact become the youngest winner ever). But considering the academy is a voting body that doesnāt often give this prize to young men, I think they go with the classic choice.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Monica Barbaro, āA Complete Unknownā; Felicity Jones, āThe Brutalistā; Ariana Grande, āWickedā; Isabella Rossellini, āC“Ē²Ō³¦±ō²¹±¹±šā; Zoe SaldaƱa, āEmilia PĆ©rezā
BAHR: seems to have this prize in the bag. She has continued winning major awards, the BAFTA and SAG included, despite . Like Moore, she has a strong narrative working in her favor and has given good, passionate speeches throughout and people seem savvy enough to not āpunishā her for her co-starās actions. It does seem a little unfair considering the fact that her character has more screentime than the person campaigning for lead. But thatās a conversation for another time.
COYLE: SaldaƱa is a lock. Sheās terrific in āEmilia PĆ©rez,ā and manages to stay so grounded and natural amid such tonal extremes. A word, also for Grande and her best actress nominee co-star Erivo. Neither seems destined to win anything, but they both deserve some kind of accolade for their tireless promotion of āWickedā and months of patient, understanding head nodding at whatever has been thrown their way.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Yura Borisov, āA²Ō“Ē°ł²¹ā; Kieran Culkin, āA Real Painā; Edward Norton, āA Complete Unknownā; Guy Pearce, āThe Brutalistā; Jeremy Strong, āThe Apprentice"
COYLE: wins this in a walk. His parade of acceptance speeches has curiously been both a regular reminder that his character in āA Real Painā wasnāt exactly a stretch, and: So what? As good as this category is ā the whole group is stellar ā Culkin has won it through his natural manic charisma.
BAHR: Itās Culkin for sure and Iām very excited for his freewheeling speech. Is this a good time to wonder why awards campaigns tend to get so tunnel visioned around one performance at the complete exclusion of their counterpart? Probably not, but I see you Jesse Eisenberg and Margaret Qualley.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Jacques Audiard, āEmilia PĆ©rezā; Sean Baker, āA²Ō“Ē°ł²¹ā; Brady Corbet, āThe Brutalistā; James Mangold, āA Complete Unknownā Coralie Fargeat, āThe Substanceā
BAHR: Sean Baker is the most likely winner here after the Directors Guild of America Awards. But it has happened that the DGA winner does not go on to win the Oscar, and as recently as 2020 when Sam Mendes lost the Oscar to Bong Joon-ho. But āA²Ō“Ē°ł²¹ā is perhaps closer to āParasite,ā both , and Iām not sure thereās an obvious second choice in this batch. If Baker isnāt the pick, all seem like fair game.
COYLE: I think Baker will win, too, though thereās a chance Corbet catches him. All of these nominees are first-timers, a nice infusion of fresh blood in a category often presided over by the old guard. A shame then that neither of the two most thrilling feature filmmaking debuts ā (āNickel Boysā) and Payal Kapadia (āAll We Imagine as Lightā) ā made the cut.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: āBlack Box Diariesā; āNo Other Landā; āPorcelain Warā; āSoundtrack to a Coup dāEtatā; āSugarcaneā
COYLE: This is a tough category partly because most of my favorite docs of 2024 ā āErnest Cole: Lost and Found,ā āWill & Harper,ā āDahomey,ā āDaughtersā ā werenāt nominated. The Oscar will likely either go to the searing on-the-ground chronicle of Israeli occupation in the West Bank, or āPorcelain War,ā a defiant portrait of keeping art and Ukrainian culture alive in the midst of war. My hunch is āPorcelain Warā wins, making it the second straight Ukraine dispatch to win, and a potentially poignant moment given recent
BAHR: This is impossible, and I would really like to hear what says from the Oscar stage, but Iām going to go with āNo Other Land.ā In addition to being a great film, itās stayed top of mind and in the conversation despite not having a distributor.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Nominees: āIām Still Here,ā Brazil; āThe Girl with the Needle,ā Denmark; āEmilia PĆ©rez,ā France; āThe Seed of the Sacred Fig,ā Germany; āFlow,ā Latvia
BAHR: The International category is especially difficult to predict this year. āEmilia PĆ©rezāsā best picture campaign may have flatlined, but it still won the BAFTA in the same category where it was up against two of the same contenders ( and ). āIām Still Hereā is its toughest competition, though itās hard to count out either. In the end, I think it may still swing āEmilia PĆ©rez.ā
COYLE: What was once a cakewalk for āEmilia PĆ©rezā has turned into a genuine nailbiter. I think āIām Still Hereā wins it, thanks not just to the collapse of āEmilia PĆ©rezā but the ascendance of Walter Sallesā timely tale of political courage. Itās a worthy winner, though I would love to see exiled Iranian director cheered for āThe Seed of the Sacred Fig,ā the yearās most courageous cinematic accomplishment.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Nominees: āF±ō“Ē·Éā; āInside Out 2ā; āMemoir of a Snailā; āWallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowlā; āThe Wild Robotā
COYLE: As much as Iād like to pick āFlow,ā the gorgeous ecological parable about a cat in a watered world, is going to win. Stiff as the competition is, Chris Sanders' movie swept the Annie Awards and is the consensus favorite. And since I, seemingly alone, found it too cloyingly manipulative to be genuinely moving, it also convinced me that I have no heart. So a double win for āThe Wild Robot.ā
BAHR: Iāll pick āFlow!ā In the grand tradition of the film significant enough to be nominated in two major categories, this seems like the place itāll win unless has anything to say about it.
Jake Coyle And Lindsey Bahr, The Associated Press
