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What will win at a nailbiter Oscars? AP's film writers make their predictions

By the time the Oscars wind around after months of other award shows and constant handicapping, the prizes can feel almost predetermined. Not this year.
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This image released by Searchlight Pictures shows TimothƩe Chalamet in a scene from "A Complete Unknown." (Macall Polay/Searchlight Pictures via AP)

By the time the Oscars wind around after months of other award shows and constant handicapping, the prizes can feel almost predetermined.

Not this year.

Sunday's 97th has more potential drama than any recent year, with many possible outcomes in the top categories, including best picture, best actor and best actress. After the first frontrunner and lead nominee, ā€œEmilia PĆ©rez,ā€ became engulfed in controversy, ā€œA²Ō“ǰł²¹ā€ ran the table with a trio of precursor guild honors. Then ā€œC“DzԳ¦±ō²¹±¹±šā€ swooped in to win at the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Who will come out on top? Associated Press Film Writers and share their predictions.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: ā€œAnora," ā€œThe Brutalist," ā€œA Complete Unknown,ā€ ā€œConclave,ā€ ā€œDune: Part Two,ā€ ā€œEmilia PĆ©rez,ā€ ā€œI’m Still Here,ā€ ā€œNickel Boys,ā€ ā€œThe Substance,ā€ ā€œWicked"

COYLE: Like any diagnosis this flu season, there are a lot of options. It would seem to be down to either (PGA, DGA and WGA wins) or (BAFTA, SAG), but it’s close enough that a shocker is in the realm of possibility. The film industry is in a strange, mixed-up place and we have had a strange, mixed-up awards season to suit it. Ultimately, I think Sean Baker’s ā€œA²Ō“ǰł²¹ā€ wins. I trust the top prizes from the and less than the – especially when the PGA opts for a scrappy indie over glossier studio productions. Plus, ā€œC“DzԳ¦±ō²¹±¹±šā€ is a nice little movie, but best picture? Not to get my vestments in a twist, but come on, ā€œA²Ō“ǰł²¹ā€ is a masterpiece.

BAHR: I kind of want to say ā€œC“DzԳ¦±ō²¹±¹±šā€ just to hedge our bets. Maybe I’ll talk myself into it by the end of this, but its recent wins over ā€œA²Ō“ǰł²¹ā€ do make a certain amount of sense (in retrospect) for those particular voting bodies — actors and, well, Brits. It’s also the establishment choice in many ways, but one that also feels aligned with the very international membership of the academy. I agree that ā€œA²Ō“ǰł²¹ā€ is a masterpiece, but maybe ā€œC“DzԳ¦±ō²¹±¹±šā€ is the consensus – everyone’s second choice.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Demi Moore, ā€œThe Substanceā€; Cynthia Erivo, ā€œWickedā€; Mikey Madison, ā€œA²Ō“ǰł²¹ā€; Karla SofĆ­a Gascón, ā€œEmilia PĆ©rezā€; Fernanda Torres, ā€œI’m Still Hereā€

BAHR: This race feels so up in the air after Mikey Madison’s BAFTA win and ā€œAnora’sā€ rise in general. Madison gave such a great and thoughtful speech there, praising her collaborators with the kind of specificity that doesn’t often happen on those stages, and it occurred before Oscar voting had ended. There’s even the possibility that ekes out a win. But I’m still leaning towards , who won at SAG, as the sentimental favorite — a fun, wild performance and a great comeback narrative. Plus, this award hasn’t really gone to an ingenue since .

COYLE: This should be close, but I also give the edge to Moore. She’s taken the lead thanks to the fearlessness of her performance in ā€œThe Substanceā€ and arguably the season’s most convincing narrative. Still, I’d favor Madison, who absolutely commands ā€œAnora.ā€

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Adrien Brody, ā€œThe Brutalistā€; TimothĆ©e Chalamet, ā€œA Complete Unknownā€; Colman Domingo, ā€œSing Singā€; Ralph Fiennes, ā€œC“DzԳ¦±ō²¹±¹±šā€; Sebastian Stan, ā€œThe Apprenticeā€

COYLE: Brody had been on cruise control for much of the season, but I think takes it. Even before his big victory at the SAG Awards, the academy’s fondness for the widely liked ā€œA Complete Unknownā€ needed somewhere to go. This Oscars could end up best remembered as the (deserving) coronation of Hollywood’s crown prince.

BAHR: Oh great, because I’m sticking with Brody. I’m glad Chalamet won at SAG, it’s makes sense that his fellow actors would want to honor his commitment to that role and film. Five years in your 20s IS forever and it would be very neat for him to win at the same age Brody did for ā€œThe Pianistā€ (and in fact become the youngest winner ever). But considering the academy is a voting body that doesn’t often give this prize to young men, I think they go with the classic choice.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Monica Barbaro, ā€œA Complete Unknownā€; Felicity Jones, ā€œThe Brutalistā€; Ariana Grande, ā€œWickedā€; Isabella Rossellini, ā€œC“DzԳ¦±ō²¹±¹±šā€; Zoe SaldaƱa, ā€œEmilia PĆ©rezā€

BAHR: seems to have this prize in the bag. She has continued winning major awards, the BAFTA and SAG included, despite . Like Moore, she has a strong narrative working in her favor and has given good, passionate speeches throughout and people seem savvy enough to not ā€œpunishā€ her for her co-star’s actions. It does seem a little unfair considering the fact that her character has more screentime than the person campaigning for lead. But that’s a conversation for another time.

COYLE: SaldaƱa is a lock. She’s terrific in ā€œEmilia PĆ©rez,ā€ and manages to stay so grounded and natural amid such tonal extremes. A word, also for Grande and her best actress nominee co-star Erivo. Neither seems destined to win anything, but they both deserve some kind of accolade for their tireless promotion of ā€œWickedā€ and months of patient, understanding head nodding at whatever has been thrown their way.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Yura Borisov, ā€œA²Ō“ǰł²¹ā€; Kieran Culkin, ā€œA Real Painā€; Edward Norton, ā€œA Complete Unknownā€; Guy Pearce, ā€œThe Brutalistā€; Jeremy Strong, ā€œThe Apprentice"

COYLE: wins this in a walk. His parade of acceptance speeches has curiously been both a regular reminder that his character in ā€œA Real Painā€ wasn’t exactly a stretch, and: So what? As good as this category is — the whole group is stellar — Culkin has won it through his natural manic charisma.

BAHR: It’s Culkin for sure and I’m very excited for his freewheeling speech. Is this a good time to wonder why awards campaigns tend to get so tunnel visioned around one performance at the complete exclusion of their counterpart? Probably not, but I see you Jesse Eisenberg and Margaret Qualley.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Jacques Audiard, ā€œEmilia PĆ©rezā€; Sean Baker, ā€œA²Ō“ǰł²¹ā€; Brady Corbet, ā€œThe Brutalistā€; James Mangold, ā€œA Complete Unknownā€ Coralie Fargeat, ā€œThe Substanceā€

BAHR: Sean Baker is the most likely winner here after the Directors Guild of America Awards. But it has happened that the DGA winner does not go on to win the Oscar, and as recently as 2020 when Sam Mendes lost the Oscar to Bong Joon-ho. But ā€œA²Ō“ǰł²¹ā€ is perhaps closer to ā€œParasite,ā€ both , and I’m not sure there’s an obvious second choice in this batch. If Baker isn’t the pick, all seem like fair game.

COYLE: I think Baker will win, too, though there’s a chance Corbet catches him. All of these nominees are first-timers, a nice infusion of fresh blood in a category often presided over by the old guard. A shame then that neither of the two most thrilling feature filmmaking debuts – (ā€œNickel Boysā€) and Payal Kapadia (ā€œAll We Imagine as Lightā€) – made the cut.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Nominees: ā€œBlack Box Diariesā€; ā€œNo Other Landā€; ā€œPorcelain Warā€; ā€œSoundtrack to a Coup d’Etatā€; ā€œSugarcaneā€

COYLE: This is a tough category partly because most of my favorite docs of 2024 — ā€œErnest Cole: Lost and Found,ā€ ā€œWill & Harper,ā€ ā€œDahomey,ā€ ā€œDaughtersā€ — weren’t nominated. The Oscar will likely either go to the searing on-the-ground chronicle of Israeli occupation in the West Bank, or ā€œPorcelain War,ā€ a defiant portrait of keeping art and Ukrainian culture alive in the midst of war. My hunch is ā€œPorcelain Warā€ wins, making it the second straight Ukraine dispatch to win, and a potentially poignant moment given recent

BAHR: This is impossible, and I would really like to hear what says from the Oscar stage, but I’m going to go with ā€œNo Other Land.ā€ In addition to being a great film, it’s stayed top of mind and in the conversation despite not having a distributor.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Nominees: ā€œI’m Still Here,ā€ Brazil; ā€œThe Girl with the Needle,ā€ Denmark; ā€œEmilia PĆ©rez,ā€ France; ā€œThe Seed of the Sacred Fig,ā€ Germany; ā€œFlow,ā€ Latvia

BAHR: The International category is especially difficult to predict this year. ā€œEmilia PĆ©rez’sā€ best picture campaign may have flatlined, but it still won the BAFTA in the same category where it was up against two of the same contenders ( and ). ā€œI’m Still Hereā€ is its toughest competition, though it’s hard to count out either. In the end, I think it may still swing ā€œEmilia PĆ©rez.ā€

COYLE: What was once a cakewalk for ā€œEmilia PĆ©rezā€ has turned into a genuine nailbiter. I think ā€œI’m Still Hereā€ wins it, thanks not just to the collapse of ā€œEmilia PĆ©rezā€ but the ascendance of Walter Salles’ timely tale of political courage. It’s a worthy winner, though I would love to see exiled Iranian director cheered for ā€œThe Seed of the Sacred Fig,ā€ the year’s most courageous cinematic accomplishment.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Nominees: ā€œF±ō“Ē·Éā€; ā€œInside Out 2ā€; ā€œMemoir of a Snailā€; ā€œWallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowlā€; ā€œThe Wild Robotā€

COYLE: As much as I’d like to pick ā€œFlow,ā€ the gorgeous ecological parable about a cat in a watered world, is going to win. Stiff as the competition is, Chris Sanders' movie swept the Annie Awards and is the consensus favorite. And since I, seemingly alone, found it too cloyingly manipulative to be genuinely moving, it also convinced me that I have no heart. So a double win for ā€œThe Wild Robot.ā€

BAHR: I’ll pick ā€œFlow!ā€ In the grand tradition of the film significant enough to be nominated in two major categories, this seems like the place it’ll win unless has anything to say about it.

Jake Coyle And Lindsey Bahr, The Associated Press

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